Ko te mekameka tuku kai o te ao te mea tino uaua rawa atu mai i te tekau tau atu i 1970. Mai i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi 2026, ko te pakanga ki a Iran me te katinga o te Moana-a-Tomuz i muri mai kua puta he awhiowhio pikinga poutū e kiia nei ko "Tomatoflation". I tēnei wiki, i tapaina mana e te UN te raruraru he "poma wā haumarutanga kai", me te kī he nui ake te pikinga i te ohorere tuku o te tau 2022.
E whakaatu ana tēnei raruraru i te āhua o te "momotu" o ngā pou e toru o te umanga tukatuka tōmato nā te pakanga ā-rohe i roto i te ao tōrangapū: te pūngao, te takai, me ngā whakaurunga ahuwhenua. Ahakoa e kitea ana he mea nui noa iho i roto i te pātaka, ko te haerenga o ngā tōmato mai i te mara ki te kēne he tukanga ahumahi e nui ana te pūngao, he tino ngoikore inaianei i raro i ngā rāhui moana.
I pakaru te raruraru i te 4 o Poutū-te-rangi, 2026, me te katinga tūturu o te Moana-a-Toi o Hormuz. E kawe ana tēnei ara wai 21-maero te roa i te ~30% o te LNG o te ao me te tata ki te 20% o ngā uta hinu. Mō tā mātou umanga, ehara i te "piki haere o ngā utu wahie" anake tēnei — he wehewehenga katoa o ngā mahi kawe waka mō te kawe i ngā hua taumaha, pirau.
Ko te pikinga o te Tōmato e peia ana e te pēhanga utu e toru e pā ana ki ngā tukatuka i te wā kotahi:
1. Pūngao:Tōmato-ki-te-whakapirihe nui te wera e hiahiatia ana hei tukatuka hei mimiti, ko te nuinga he hau maori.
2. Tākai: Nā ngā aukati i whakararuraruhia ai te hanga konumohe me te pereti tine o te Rawhiti o Waenganui; kua nui ake ngā utu o ngā kēne i te whakapiri i roto.
3. Ngā Whakaurunga: Kua mahi ngā kamupene kaweake nui tae atu ki a Rūhia me Haina ki te tiaki i te haumarutanga kai o roto, mā te whakatio i ngā kaweake tongi, ā, ka waiho ngā kaimahi pāmu o te Hauāuru ki te utu whakauru nui rawa atu.
I te taenga atu o te umanga ki te matapihi whakato nui o te kōanga, kei te memeha haere te wā o ngā tōmato utu iti. Ki te kore he wawaotanga tonu, ka piki pea ngā utu kaihoko mā te 35–40% puta noa i te kāwai i te wā o te tau 2026.
Pūngao
Ahakoa te mōrearea o te raruraru tongi i ngā hua o te heke mai, kei te whakararuraru ngā mākete pūngao i ngā wheketere i ēnei rā. Ko te hau māori te mea nui ki te kukū o te tōmato, e whakarato ana i te wera mō te mimiti nui - engari kua neke mai i te utu nui ki te koretake. I te 1 o Paenga-whāwhā, i whakapuakina e QatarEnergy he kaha nui ki ngā tuku ki Ūropi whai muri i te whakaekenga o ngā pere a Iran ki te whare ahumahi o Ras Laffan. Nā tēnei nekehanga mai i te "whakaroa" ki te "whakararuraru roa" kua tino hanga hou i tā mātou turanga utu.
He tino uaua te āhua o ngā tukatuka o te EU: kei runga ake i te €60/MWh ngā utu hau TTF o Hōrana. Ko te mea kino rawa atu, nā te pikinga hou o ngā utu hiko ahumahi i te 1 o Paenga-whāwhā i pana ngā utu e pā ana ki te pūngao ki te tata ki te 30% o te whakapaunga whakaputa katoa - e toru te toharite o mua. Nā te mea he hua koiora ngā tōmato kāore e taea te "penapena" mō ngā utu pai ake, kei te whakatata tātou ki te "raka whero". Ki te kore he mahi whakatau ā-motu tonu, ka pirau pea ngā miriona tana o ngā hua kounga teitei i roto i ngā mara nā te mea he iti te utu mō te whakahaere i ngā kohua.
Tākai
Kua neke haere te kore pumau mai i ngā kohua ki ngā raina huihuinga, me te nui o te korenga o ngā takai pakari me ngā takai ngāwari. Ko te "taake whakarewa" i runga i ngā kēne tōmato paerewa kua waiho hei kawenga hanganga. Nā ngā whakaekenga pere i whakapumautia ki ngā whare o Alba (Bahrain) me EGA (UAE) i te 31 o Poutū-te-rangi i huri ai ngā mākete mai i ngā whakaroa mahi ki ngā korenga tinana. I piki ake te konumohe LME ki te ~$3,500/t, me te matapae a ngā kaitātari matua inaianei he $4,000/t i te mutunga o te hauwhā. Mō te kēne paerewa 400g, kua tata te utu whakarewa ki te neke ake i te uara o te hua i roto.
I taua wā tonu, ko ngā takai ngāwari — he mea nui mō ngā pēke aseptic, ngā putea hokohoko, me ngā raina — e anga atu ana ki tōna ake "oho polyethylene". E ai ki a Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE), i piki ake ngā utu HDPE mā te 12% i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2026, LDPE mā te 16%, me te tumanako ka piki ake ngā hua i tēnei marama i te mea ka paahitia e ngā kaihanga o roto ngā utu pūngao teitei ake. E ai ki a OPIS, kua whakararuraru te raruraru o Iran i ngā mekameka tuku kapia o te ao, ā, kua akiaki i a Ūropi me Āhia ki te whakataetae mō ngā rahinga o Amerika Te Raki. I te pikinga o te naphtha mā te 40% me te pikinga o ngā utu ratonga, me kaha ake te whakahaere a ngā kaiwhakahaere o Ūropi i ngā tipu hei utu mō te putanga ngaro, ka puta he tino piki haere o ngā utu me te iti o te tuku.
Ngā mahi whakahaere
Ahakoa i muri i te tukatuka me te whakakī i ngā taonga kua oti, kei te āraihia tonutia te tukunga o ngā taonga kua oti i ngā āhuatanga whenua hou. Nā te hekenga o te haumarutanga i te Moana Whero kua akiaki i ngā kaikawe nui tae atu ki a Maersk me CMA CGM ki te whakamahi i te huarahi Cape of Good Hope hei paerewa mō te tuku kaipuke mai i te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki Āhia. E 14 ngā rā mō ia haerenga e pau ana i tēnei huringa, he ohorere pūnaha e whakararuraru ana i ngā tukunga o ngā taonga kua oti me ngā wāhanga mīhini motuhake.
Ka tukuna tika ngā utu whakawhiti ki ngā kaihanga. Whai muri i te pikinga o te hinu mata o Brent ki runga ake i te $108/bbl, i whakahoutia e ngā kaikawe ngā hanganga taripa i te 27 o Poutū-te-rangi; ko ngā utu tāpiri mō te mōrearea o te wahie me te pakanga kei te $265 ia TEU. Nā te utu tāpiri tukunga hou (EMS) i te 1 o Paenga-whāwhā i whakapiki ake te uaua, ā, i hangaia e ngā utu tīhiera rekoata te kawe waka uta "maero whakamutunga" i Itari me Parani kia rite ki te mano maero tuatahi o te kaipuke moana. Ko te pikinga o te tōmato inaianei e te mākete kawe waka e kore e mōhio ki te utu "noa".
Te Tiakitanga Sino-Rūhia
Hei whakamutunga, kei te tūtaki te umanga ki tētahi tūmomo mōrearea i te taumata oneone. Kua whakamotuhaketia e Rūhia me Haina ngā taonga tongi o te ao hei tiaki i te haumarutanga kai o te motu. I te 24 o Poutū-te-rangi, i whakamutua e te Manatū Ahuwhenua o Rūhia ngā kaweake i te ammonium nitrate, ā, i tangohia te 40% o te hauota matua o te ao i te tīmatanga o te tongi a ngā kaimahi pāmu i te puna. I taua wā, kua āraia e Haina, nā te "wairere whanariki" - he korenga o ngā kawemai whanariki mai i te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i waenganui i te aukati - ngā kaweake i te NPK me te phosphates.
Kua piki ake ngā utu o te urea mā te 77% mai i Tīhema, ā, ka taea e ngā utu tongi mō ia heketea te rite ki te rua o te uara o te hua. Ki te kore e nui te hauota me te whākōkī i tēnei marama, e matapaetia ana ka heke ngā hua i te rohe o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mā te 15–20% mō ia heketea.
Ko te wā o te tau 2026 te tohu o te mutunga o tētahi wā. Ahakoa te tumanako ā-pāremata e tukuna ana e te "Hormuz Grain Initiative" a te UN, kāore e taea e te umanga tōmato te tatari mō ngā tiriti i te mea ka kati te matapihi whakato. Hei tiaki i tā tātou rāngai, me tautoko tātou i ngā karanga tere mai i Rōma me Parī kia whakamutua tonutia ngā kaupapa here hokohoko me te mahere mana motuhake o te tongi a Ūropi. Kāore tātou e tukatuka noa i ngā tōmato; kei te whakahaere tātou i tētahi raruraru ā-rohe. Ki te kore tātou e whiwhi i ngā whakaurunga ahumahi i nāianei, ko te "koura whero" o te tau 2026 ka tautuhia ehara i te kounga, engari ko te koretake rawa.
Ngā Puna: IEA, Insee France, Wood Mackenzie, Maritime Gateway, Maersk, Flexible Packaging Europe, Investing.com, JP Morgan, ICIS, Reuters, Food Ingredients First, Expana, Agrisole, Food Manufacturing
Wā tuku: 17 Paenga-whāwhā 2026